The United States remains one of the top three most-visited countries globally, attracting millions of international tourists each year.
Popular destinations such as New York, San Francisco, and Chicago, along with renowned national parks like Yosemite, have long drawn visitors.
In 2023, the country welcomed 66.5 million tourists, and the numbers for 2024 were expected to be even higher.
However, shifting political and economic conditions may impact future tourism trends.
Following Donald Trump’s reelection as U.S. president in 2024, changes in foreign policy and domestic culture are beginning to influence global perceptions of the U.S., potentially deterring international visitors.
A recent Tourism Economics report indicates that inbound travel projections for 2024 have shifted from an expected 9% growth to a 5.5% decline.
If trade tensions escalate further, international tourism revenue could drop by $18 billion in 2025.
Early signs of this decline are already visible. Canada, the top source of U.S. visitors, has seen a reduction in cross-border travel.
Following Trump’s 25% tariff on certain Canadian imports, some border crossings have recorded up to a 45% drop in Canadian visitors.
Air Canada has also cut flights to U.S. destinations like Las Vegas due to decreased demand.
A March survey by market researcher Leger found that 36% of Canadians who had planned U.S. trips had canceled them, with aviation data showing a 70% drop in Canada-to-U.S. bookings compared to last year.
The U.S. Travel Association warns that a 10% decline in Canadian visitors could cost the U.S. economy $2.1 billion and put 140,000 hospitality jobs at risk.
Beyond economic factors, political and social climates are affecting travel decisions.
Some prospective tourists have cited a growing sense of unwelcomeness, particularly regarding rhetoric on immigration and LGBTQ+ rights.
The Tourism Economics report highlights concerns over Trump administration policies as a reason for rising cancellations.
Western Europe, which accounted for 37% of U.S. overseas tourism last year, is also seeing a shift in sentiment.
Factors like increased tariffs and perceived political realignments, such as the U.S.’s stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine, are influencing travel choices.
A March YouGov poll found unfavorable opinions of the U.S. have risen in Britain (53%), Germany (56%), Sweden (63%), and Denmark (74%), reaching their lowest levels since polling began in 2016.
Border incidents may further discourage travel. In March, a British woman was detained for over ten days due to a visa issue, while a Canadian tourist attempting to renew her visa at the U.S.-Mexico border faced a similar fate.
These high-profile cases raise concerns about border enforcement, particularly for Mexico, the second-largest source of U.S. tourists.
Mexican travel to the U.S. declined by 3% during Trump’s first term, and air travel from Mexico has already fallen 6% in 2024.
Several countries are updating travel advisories for the U.S. The UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office revised its guidance in March, warning visitors of possible arrests or detentions.
Germany issued similar warnings, citing recent cases of German citizens being detained at U.S. borders.
Additionally, France, Germany, Denmark, and Norway have released travel advisories for transgender and non-binary visitors due to U.S. policies requiring tourists to declare their sex assigned at birth on visa applications.
The U.S. has also discontinued issuing passports with an “X” gender marker, affecting its own citizens as well.
With declining interest in U.S. travel, other destinations are experiencing an uptick.
Hotels in Bermuda report a surge in Canadian bookings, with some expecting a 20% revenue increase.
Similarly, European vacation rentals have seen a 32% rise in summer reservations from Canadian travelers.
Concerns over visa policies and entry restrictions could also affect major upcoming events.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to be hosted in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, may face disruptions as visitors from countries like Brazil, Turkey, and Colombia experience visa wait times of up to 700 days.
The International Olympic Committee has raised similar concerns about the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, though U.S. officials insist the country will remain open to visitors.
With stricter border controls, increasing visa delays, and growing concerns over human rights issues, the U.S. risks losing its status as a top global travel destination.
The long-term effects on its tourism industry may be challenging to reverse.
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